Anomalies in voter age distributions in the Illinois state voter history database
Updated added below, Jun 17
This post is to document initial results of an analysis of the Illinois state voter history database.
In a previous analysis of the Illinois state voter database, here, it was observed that voters aged 18-28 are under voting by approximately 3X compared to voters aged 45-55:
The state voter database thus allows a high precision measurement of the age at vote distribution. Any form of voter fraud would likely appear and be detectable as a discontinuity or other feature in the age distribution.
At the County level, in a handful of north-eastern Illinois counties and Champaign (state capitol) there are many such features and discontinuities beginning in the 2016 primary election:
At the County/election level, a typical distribution appears as:
Starting in the 2020 primary, a thumb appears in the distribution (data for IL-14 shown):
The enhancement in the north-eastern counties can also be seen in other elections:
The most populous IL. county is cook with 1.5 million registered voters, however, in the state database there is also a county number 105, which is listed as “Dept. of Juvenile Justice” in the state data, (county_codes) and it also has 1.5 million voters in the database. The distribution for county 105 has a large nearly triangular feature in the age distribution:
New mail in ballot printer/counter machines that are being slowly pushed onto the County Recorders in Illinois: (paywall defeat: f12 - gear icon - disable javascript - reload - f12)
UPDATE, Jun 17: all anomalies described herein could be explained by unsolicited mail in ballots.
One of the changes that occurred due to the COVID pandemic was legislation that mandated (and paid for) mass unsolicited mailings of mail in ballots:
Covid legislation also paid for new high speed ballot printing machines: Kane County high speed printers
The scenario then appears to be that unsolicited mail in ballots are mailed to only certain voter populations and some non trivial percentage of the unsolicited ballots will be returned, and the outcome of elections can be changed. It all appears to be legal too?